@article{144802ba884f4107b15a59667ebb7f07,
title = "Future Weakening of the ENSO Ocean Carbon Buffer Under Anthropogenic Forcing",
abstract = "The El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the largest driver of atmospheric CO2 interannual variability. The equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is a natural source of CO2 to the atmosphere, acts as a buffer of the terrestrial variations by releasing less CO2 during El Ni{\~n}o events and releasing more CO2 during La Ni{\~n}a events. Here, we examine how this ocean carbon buffer will respond to high anthropogenic emissions using Earth system models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The models project weaker ocean CO2 flux anomalies in the future due to two main factors: a stronger compensation between thermal and nonthermal changes in ocean biogeochemistry (55% of signal) and a weaker influence of ENSO on the CO2 transfer across the air-sea interface (10%–25% of signal). The ocean would no longer buffer the land response to ENSO, and could even reinforce its impact on atmospheric CO2, amplifying the atmospheric carbon variability on interannual timescales.",
keywords = "anthropogenic forcing, CMIP, ENSO, equatorial Pacific Ocean, land carbon flux, ocean carbon flux",
author = "Enhui Liao and Laure Resplandy and Junjie Liu and Bowman, {Kevin W.}",
note = "Funding Information: Enhui Liao, Laure Resplandy, Kevin W. Bowman, and Junjie Liu gratefully acknowledge the support of the NASA OCO-2 Science Team Grant 80NSSC18K0893. Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provided coordinating support and led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. Enhui Liao and Laure Resplandy also thank David Luet from Princeton University and the Princeton Institute for Computational Science & Engineering (PICSciE) for facilitating access and analysis of the CMIP archive. Funding Information: Enhui Liao, Laure Resplandy, Kevin W. Bowman, and Junjie Liu gratefully acknowledge the support of the NASA OCO‐2 Science Team Grant 80NSSC18K0893. Part of this research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004). The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provided coordinating support and led the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. Enhui Liao and Laure Resplandy also thank David Luet from Princeton University and the Princeton Institute for Computational Science & Engineering (PICSciE) for facilitating access and analysis of the CMIP archive. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",
year = "2021",
month = sep,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1029/2021GL094021",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "48",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "18",
}