Future impacts of two types of El Niño on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections

Peng Wang; Chi Yung Tam; Ngar Cheung Lau; Kang Xu

doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05510-0

Future impacts of two types of El Niño on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections

Peng Wang, Chi Yung Tam, Ngar Cheung Lau, Kang Xu

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8 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this study, future change of El Niño-related East Asian (EA) rainfall and the diversity of this relationship are investigated on the basis of the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) simulations taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). By evaluating the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) climatology and interannual variations in simulations contributing to CMIP5, nine models are verified to be capable of reproducing El Niño diversity and EASM simultaneously. Six of these models are selected for projecting the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of two types of El Niño-related EA/western North Pacific (WNP) rainfall patterns and low-level atmospheric circulations under global warming, considering the realism in their simulated El Niño and EASM phenomena. It was found that, under a warmer background climate, the general patterns of anomalous circulation and rainfall will persist, but with amplification of the rainfall intensity during mature boreal winter and decaying summer for both Eastern-Pacific (EP) and Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño. Amplification of CP type-related rainfall seems to be stronger than that for EP type El Niño. Further analyses show that a moister atmosphere tends to always strengthen the rainfall variations for both El Niño flavors, regardless of how the El Niño-related circulation amplitude is modulated in various seasons. However, in boreal summer during the El Niño decaying phase, strengthened anomalous circulation also enhances the rainfall variability, with an effect comparable to the background moisture increase. Some of these atmospheric circulation changes might be associated with modified sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of El Niño and its diversity, under global warming. Our results indicate the importance of better preparedness and higher resilience in the EA region to enhanced El Niño-induced hydrological variations under a warming climate.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	899-916
Number of pages	18
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	56
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05510-0
State	Published - Feb 2021
Externally published	Yes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Atmospheric Science

Keywords

Central-Pacific El Niño
East Asian rainfall
Eastern-Pacific El Niño
Global warming
Moisture budget
Monsoon circulation

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10.1007/s00382-020-05510-0

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@article{aba19ff1ed8b4087b51d3e271678d3a0,

title = "Future impacts of two types of El Ni{\~n}o on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections",

abstract = "In this study, future change of El Ni{\~n}o-related East Asian (EA) rainfall and the diversity of this relationship are investigated on the basis of the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) simulations taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). By evaluating the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) climatology and interannual variations in simulations contributing to CMIP5, nine models are verified to be capable of reproducing El Ni{\~n}o diversity and EASM simultaneously. Six of these models are selected for projecting the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of two types of El Ni{\~n}o-related EA/western North Pacific (WNP) rainfall patterns and low-level atmospheric circulations under global warming, considering the realism in their simulated El Ni{\~n}o and EASM phenomena. It was found that, under a warmer background climate, the general patterns of anomalous circulation and rainfall will persist, but with amplification of the rainfall intensity during mature boreal winter and decaying summer for both Eastern-Pacific (EP) and Central-Pacific (CP) El Ni{\~n}o. Amplification of CP type-related rainfall seems to be stronger than that for EP type El Ni{\~n}o. Further analyses show that a moister atmosphere tends to always strengthen the rainfall variations for both El Ni{\~n}o flavors, regardless of how the El Ni{\~n}o-related circulation amplitude is modulated in various seasons. However, in boreal summer during the El Ni{\~n}o decaying phase, strengthened anomalous circulation also enhances the rainfall variability, with an effect comparable to the background moisture increase. Some of these atmospheric circulation changes might be associated with modified sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of El Ni{\~n}o and its diversity, under global warming. Our results indicate the importance of better preparedness and higher resilience in the EA region to enhanced El Ni{\~n}o-induced hydrological variations under a warming climate.",

keywords = "Central-Pacific El Ni{\~n}o, East Asian rainfall, Eastern-Pacific El Ni{\~n}o, Global warming, Moisture budget, Monsoon circulation",

author = "Peng Wang and Tam, {Chi Yung} and Lau, {Ngar Cheung} and Kang Xu",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.",

year = "2021",

month = feb,

doi = "10.1007/s00382-020-05510-0",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "56",

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T1 - Future impacts of two types of El Niño on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections

AU - Wang, Peng

AU - Tam, Chi Yung

AU - Lau, Ngar Cheung

AU - Xu, Kang

PY - 2021/2

Y1 - 2021/2

N2 - In this study, future change of El Niño-related East Asian (EA) rainfall and the diversity of this relationship are investigated on the basis of the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) simulations taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). By evaluating the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) climatology and interannual variations in simulations contributing to CMIP5, nine models are verified to be capable of reproducing El Niño diversity and EASM simultaneously. Six of these models are selected for projecting the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of two types of El Niño-related EA/western North Pacific (WNP) rainfall patterns and low-level atmospheric circulations under global warming, considering the realism in their simulated El Niño and EASM phenomena. It was found that, under a warmer background climate, the general patterns of anomalous circulation and rainfall will persist, but with amplification of the rainfall intensity during mature boreal winter and decaying summer for both Eastern-Pacific (EP) and Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño. Amplification of CP type-related rainfall seems to be stronger than that for EP type El Niño. Further analyses show that a moister atmosphere tends to always strengthen the rainfall variations for both El Niño flavors, regardless of how the El Niño-related circulation amplitude is modulated in various seasons. However, in boreal summer during the El Niño decaying phase, strengthened anomalous circulation also enhances the rainfall variability, with an effect comparable to the background moisture increase. Some of these atmospheric circulation changes might be associated with modified sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of El Niño and its diversity, under global warming. Our results indicate the importance of better preparedness and higher resilience in the EA region to enhanced El Niño-induced hydrological variations under a warming climate.

AB - In this study, future change of El Niño-related East Asian (EA) rainfall and the diversity of this relationship are investigated on the basis of the historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) simulations taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). By evaluating the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) climatology and interannual variations in simulations contributing to CMIP5, nine models are verified to be capable of reproducing El Niño diversity and EASM simultaneously. Six of these models are selected for projecting the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of two types of El Niño-related EA/western North Pacific (WNP) rainfall patterns and low-level atmospheric circulations under global warming, considering the realism in their simulated El Niño and EASM phenomena. It was found that, under a warmer background climate, the general patterns of anomalous circulation and rainfall will persist, but with amplification of the rainfall intensity during mature boreal winter and decaying summer for both Eastern-Pacific (EP) and Central-Pacific (CP) El Niño. Amplification of CP type-related rainfall seems to be stronger than that for EP type El Niño. Further analyses show that a moister atmosphere tends to always strengthen the rainfall variations for both El Niño flavors, regardless of how the El Niño-related circulation amplitude is modulated in various seasons. However, in boreal summer during the El Niño decaying phase, strengthened anomalous circulation also enhances the rainfall variability, with an effect comparable to the background moisture increase. Some of these atmospheric circulation changes might be associated with modified sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) of El Niño and its diversity, under global warming. Our results indicate the importance of better preparedness and higher resilience in the EA region to enhanced El Niño-induced hydrological variations under a warming climate.

KW - Central-Pacific El Niño

KW - East Asian rainfall

KW - Eastern-Pacific El Niño

KW - Global warming

KW - Moisture budget

KW - Monsoon circulation

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DO - 10.1007/s00382-020-05510-0

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SN - 0930-7575

VL - 56

SP - 899

EP - 916

JO - Climate Dynamics

JF - Climate Dynamics

IS - 3-4

ER -

Future impacts of two types of El Niño on East Asian rainfall based on CMIP5 model projections

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Keywords

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