TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting Tropical Annual Maximum Wet-Bulb Temperatures Months in Advance From the Current State of ENSO
AU - Zhang, Yi
AU - Boos, William R.
AU - Held, Isaac
AU - Paciorek, Christopher J.
AU - Fueglistaler, Stephan
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024. The Authors.
PY - 2024/4/16
Y1 - 2024/4/16
N2 - Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TWmax). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TWmax and significant regional TWmax variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ∼2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TWmax of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TWmax in specific areas.
AB - Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TWmax). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TWmax and significant regional TWmax variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ∼2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TWmax of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TWmax in specific areas.
KW - ENSO
KW - global warming
KW - heat stress
KW - tropical dynamics
KW - wet-bulb temperature
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U2 - 10.1029/2023GL106990
DO - 10.1029/2023GL106990
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85189944685
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 51
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 7
M1 - e2023GL106990
ER -