Forecasting Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Infectious Diseases

Sylvain Gandon, Troy Day, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, Bryan T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

50 Scopus citations


Mathematical models have been powerful tools in developing mechanistic understanding of infectious diseases. Furthermore, they have allowed detailed forecasting of epidemiological phenomena such as outbreak size, which is of considerable public-health relevance. The short generation time of pathogens and the strong selection they are subjected to (by host immunity, vaccines, chemotherapy, etc.) mean that evolution is also a key driver of infectious disease dynamics. Accurate forecasting of pathogen dynamics therefore calls for the integration of epidemiological and evolutionary processes, yet this integration remains relatively rare. We review previous attempts to model and predict infectious disease dynamics with or without evolution and discuss major challenges facing the development of the emerging science of epidemic forecasting.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)776-788
Number of pages13
JournalTrends in Ecology and Evolution
Issue number10
StatePublished - Oct 1 2016
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics


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