Forecasting commercial electricity sales

Mark W. Watson, Lydia M. Pastuszek, Eric Cody

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Scopus citations


An important component of the New England Electric System Companies' (the 'System') total electricity sales is attributable to commercial customers. Commercial growth has recently been strong; moreover the System's peak demand is highly sensitive to commercial load. In a typical month this class represents 33 per cent of total System sales. Accurate short‐run forecasts of total kWh sales are important for rate making, budgeting, fuel cause proceedings, and corporate planning. In this study we use a variety of econometric and time‐series techniques to produce short‐run forecasts of commercial sales for two geographical areas served by two separate retail companies;.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)117-136
Number of pages20
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Issue number2
StatePublished - 1987
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Strategy and Management
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Management Science and Operations Research


  • Box‐Jenkins State‐space
  • Econometric methods
  • Electric utility sales
  • State‐space


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