@article{9735a0b4f8a64dd2a3c43aeddd139de1,
title = "Flood Risks in Sinking Delta Cities: Time for a Reevaluation?",
abstract = "Sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence are expected to increase the risk of flooding and reliance on flood defenses for cities built on deltas. Here, we combine reliability analysis with hydrodynamic modeling to quantify the effect of projected relative SLR on dike failures and flood hazards for Shanghai, one of the most exposed delta cities. We find that flood inundation is likely to occur in low-lying and poorly protected periurban/rural areas of the city even under the present-day sea level. However, without adaptation measures, the risk increases by a factor of 3–160 across the densely populated floodplain under projected SLR to 2100. Impacts of frequent flood events are predicted to be more affected by SLR than those with longer return periods. Our results imply that including reliability-based dike failures in flood simulations enables more credible flood risk assessment for global delta cities where conventional methods have assumed either overtopping only or complete failure.",
keywords = "Shanghai, delta city, dike failure, flood risk, land subsidence, sea level rise",
author = "Jie Yin and Sebastiaan Jonkman and Ning Lin and Dapeng Yu and Jeroen Aerts and Robert Wilby and Ming Pan and Eric Wood and Jeremy Bricker and Qian Ke and Zhenzhong Zeng and Qing Zhao and Jianzhong Ge and Jun Wang",
note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1508803, 2017YFE0100700, 2017YFE0107400), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41871164, 51761135024), the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant 18ZDA105), the Research Projects of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (Grant 19DZ1201500, 18ZR1410800), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant 2018ECNU‐QKT001, 2017ECNUKXK013), and Institute of Eco‐Chongming (Grant ECNU‐IEC‐202001). N. L. has received funding from the National Science Foundation of the United States (Grant EAR‐1520683). D. P. Y. and R. L. W were funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/R009600/1, NE/S017186/1). B. J., J. B., and Q. K. acknowledged financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) (Grant ALWSD.2016.007). Q. Z. has performed within the ESA‐MOST Dragon 5 ESA project ID 58351. Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant 2018YFC1508803, 2017YFE0100700, 2017YFE0107400), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 41871164, 51761135024), the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant 18ZDA105), the Research Projects of Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (Grant 19DZ1201500, 18ZR1410800), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant 2018ECNU-QKT001, 2017ECNUKXK013), and Institute of Eco-Chongming (Grant ECNU-IEC-202001). N. L. has received funding from the National Science Foundation of the United States (Grant EAR-1520683). D. P. Y. and R. L. W were funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/R009600/1, NE/S017186/1). B. J., J. B., and Q. K. acknowledged financial support from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) (Grant ALWSD.2016.007). Q. Z. has performed within the ESA-MOST Dragon 5 ESA project ID 58351. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020. The Authors.",
year = "2020",
month = aug,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1029/2020EF001614",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "8",
journal = "Earth's Future",
issn = "2328-4277",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",
number = "8",
}