Financial predictors of real activity and the financial accelerator

Ashoka Mody, Mark P. Taylor

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

34 Scopus citations


We document the breakdown in the term spread as a predictor of activity during the 1990s and provide the first long-horizon regression evidence that the high yield spread predicts well. The results support the presence of a US financial accelerator.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)167-172
Number of pages6
JournalEconomics Letters
Issue number2
StatePublished - Feb 2004
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics


  • Financial accelerator
  • High yield spread


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