TY - JOUR
T1 - Extrapolating Treatment Effects in Multi-Cutoff Regression Discontinuity Designs
AU - Cattaneo, Matias D.
AU - Keele, Luke
AU - Titiunik, Rocío
AU - Vazquez-Bare, Gonzalo
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Abstract–In nonexperimental settings, the regression discontinuity (RD) design is one of the most credible identification strategies for program evaluation and causal inference. However, RD treatment effect estimands are necessarily local, making statistical methods for the extrapolation of these effects a key area for development. We introduce a new method for extrapolation of RD effects that relies on the presence of multiple cutoffs, and is therefore design-based. Our approach employs an easy-to-interpret identifying assumption that mimics the idea of “common trends” in difference-in-differences designs. We illustrate our methods with data on a subsidized loan program on post-education attendance in Colombia, and offer new evidence on program effects for students with test scores away from the cutoff that determined program eligibility. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
AB - Abstract–In nonexperimental settings, the regression discontinuity (RD) design is one of the most credible identification strategies for program evaluation and causal inference. However, RD treatment effect estimands are necessarily local, making statistical methods for the extrapolation of these effects a key area for development. We introduce a new method for extrapolation of RD effects that relies on the presence of multiple cutoffs, and is therefore design-based. Our approach employs an easy-to-interpret identifying assumption that mimics the idea of “common trends” in difference-in-differences designs. We illustrate our methods with data on a subsidized loan program on post-education attendance in Colombia, and offer new evidence on program effects for students with test scores away from the cutoff that determined program eligibility. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
KW - Causal inference
KW - Extrapolation
KW - Regression discontinuity
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U2 - 10.1080/01621459.2020.1751646
DO - 10.1080/01621459.2020.1751646
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85087012347
JO - Journal of the American Statistical Association
JF - Journal of the American Statistical Association
SN - 0162-1459
ER -