Extrapolating human probability judgment

Daniel Osherson, Edward E. Smith, Tracy S. Myers, Eldar Shafir, Michael Stob

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Scopus citations


We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)103-129
Number of pages27
JournalTheory and Decision
Issue number2
StatePublished - Mar 1994

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Decision Sciences(all)
  • Developmental and Educational Psychology
  • Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)
  • Applied Psychology
  • Social Sciences(all)
  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
  • Computer Science Applications


  • Probability
  • judgment
  • psychology


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