Extrapolating human probability judgment

Daniel Osherson; Edward E. Smith; Tracy S. Myers; Eldar Shafir; Michael Stob

doi:10.1007/BF01079209

Extrapolating human probability judgment

Daniel Osherson, Edward E. Smith, Tracy S. Myers, Eldar Shafir, Michael Stob

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

16 Scopus citations

Abstract

We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	103-129
Number of pages	27
Journal	Theory and Decision
Volume	36
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01079209
State	Published - Mar 1994

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Decision Sciences(all)
Developmental and Educational Psychology
Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous)
Applied Psychology
Social Sciences(all)
Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
Computer Science Applications

Keywords

Probability
judgment
psychology

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10.1007/BF01079209

Cite this

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title = "Extrapolating human probability judgment",

abstract = "We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.",

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author = "Daniel Osherson and Smith, {Edward E.} and Myers, {Tracy S.} and Eldar Shafir and Michael Stob",

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AU - Shafir, Eldar

AU - Stob, Michael

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N2 - We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.

AB - We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.

KW - Probability

KW - judgment

KW - psychology

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DO - 10.1007/BF01079209

M3 - Article

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IS - 2

ER -

Extrapolating human probability judgment

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Keywords

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