Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology

Daniel Osherson; Eldar Shafir; Edward E. Smith

doi:10.1016/0010-0277(94)90033-7

Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology

Daniel Osherson
, Eldar Shafir
, Edward E. Smith

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	299-313
Number of pages	15
Journal	Cognition
Volume	50
Issue number	1-3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0277(94)90033-7
State	Published - 1994

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Experimental and Cognitive Psychology
Developmental and Educational Psychology
Cognitive Neuroscience
Language and Linguistics
Linguistics and Language

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10.1016/0010-0277(94)90033-7

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title = "Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology",

abstract = "Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.",

author = "Daniel Osherson and Eldar Shafir and Smith, \{Edward E.\}",

note = "Funding Information: *Corresponding author: E-mail [email protected] Research support was provided by the Swiss National Science Foundation contract 21-32399.91 to Osherson, by US Public Health Service Grant l-R29-MH46885 from NIMH to Shafir, and by Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Contract No. AFOSR-92-0265 to Smith.",

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T2 - a research program for cognitive psychology

AU - Osherson, Daniel

AU - Shafir, Eldar

AU - Smith, Edward E.

N1 - Funding Information: *Corresponding author: E-mail [email protected] Research support was provided by the Swiss National Science Foundation contract 21-32399.91 to Osherson, by US Public Health Service Grant l-R29-MH46885 from NIMH to Shafir, and by Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Contract No. AFOSR-92-0265 to Smith.

PY - 1994

Y1 - 1994

N2 - Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.

AB - Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.

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U2 - 10.1016/0010-0277(94)90033-7

DO - 10.1016/0010-0277(94)90033-7

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EP - 313

JO - Cognition

JF - Cognition

IS - 1-3

ER -

Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement: a research program for cognitive psychology

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

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