TY - JOUR
T1 - Extracting the coherent core of human probability judgement
T2 - a research program for cognitive psychology
AU - Osherson, Daniel
AU - Shafir, Eldar
AU - Smith, Edward E.
N1 - Funding Information:
*Corresponding author: E-mail [email protected] Research support was provided by the Swiss National Science Foundation contract 21-32399.91 to Osherson, by US Public Health Service Grant l-R29-MH46885 from NIMH to Shafir, and by Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Contract No. AFOSR-92-0265 to Smith.
PY - 1994
Y1 - 1994
N2 - Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.
AB - Human intuition is a rich and useful guide to uncertain events in the environment but suffers from probabilistic incoherence in the technical sense. Developing methods for extracting a coherent body of judgement that is maximally consistent with a person's intuition is a challenging task for cognitive psychology, and also relevant to the construction of artificial expert systems. The present article motivates this problem, and outlines one approach to it.
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U2 - 10.1016/0010-0277(94)90033-7
DO - 10.1016/0010-0277(94)90033-7
M3 - Article
C2 - 8039366
AN - SCOPUS:0028419113
SN - 0010-0277
VL - 50
SP - 299
EP - 313
JO - Cognition
JF - Cognition
IS - 1-3
ER -