Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example

Caroline A. Katsman; A. Sterl; J. J. Beersma; H. W. van den Brink; J. A. Church; W. Hazeleger; R. E. Kopp; D. Kroon; J. Kwadijk; R. Lammersen; J. Lowe; M. Oppenheimer; H. P. Plag; J. Ridley; H. von Storch; D. G. Vaughan; P. Vellinga; L. L.A. Vermeersen; R. S.W. van de Wal; R. Weisse

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example

Caroline A. Katsman, A. Sterl, J. J. Beersma, H. W. van den Brink, J. A. Church, W. Hazeleger, R. E. Kopp, D. Kroon, J. Kwadijk, R. Lammersen, J. Lowe, M. Oppenheimer, H. P. Plag, J. Ridley, H. von Storch, D. G. Vaughan, P. Vellinga, L. L.A. Vermeersen, R. S.W. van de Wal, R. Weisse

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Abstract

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country's flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0. 55 to 1. 15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0. 40 to 1. 05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	617-645
Number of pages	29
Journal	Climatic Change
Volume	109
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5
State	Published - Dec 2011

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Global and Planetary Change
Atmospheric Science

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Katsman, C. A., Sterl, A., Beersma, J. J., van den Brink, H. W., Church, J. A., Hazeleger, W., Kopp, R. E., Kroon, D., Kwadijk, J., Lammersen, R., Lowe, J., Oppenheimer, M., Plag, H. P., Ridley, J., von Storch, H., Vaughan, D. G., Vellinga, P., Vermeersen, L. L. A., van de Wal, R. S. W., & Weisse, R. (2011). Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example. Climatic Change, 109(3-4), 617-645. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

@article{60dade24a87c42dfb10b64e38b14e60b,

title = "Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example",

abstract = "Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country's flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0. 55 to 1. 15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0. 40 to 1. 05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.",

author = "Katsman, {Caroline A.} and A. Sterl and Beersma, {J. J.} and {van den Brink}, {H. W.} and Church, {J. A.} and W. Hazeleger and Kopp, {R. E.} and D. Kroon and J. Kwadijk and R. Lammersen and J. Lowe and M. Oppenheimer and Plag, {H. P.} and J. Ridley and {von Storch}, H. and Vaughan, {D. G.} and P. Vellinga and Vermeersen, {L. L.A.} and {van de Wal}, {R. S.W.} and R. Weisse",

note = "Funding Information: Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the members of the Dutch Delta Committee, and in particular Pavel Kabat, for initiating this research. J.A.C. was partly funded by the Australian Climate Change Science Program and the Pacific Climate Change Science Program, which is supported by AusAID, in collaboration with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. R.E.K. was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship in the Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy program at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University.",

year = "2011",

month = dec,

doi = "10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "109",

pages = "617--645",

journal = "Climatic Change",

issn = "0165-0009",

publisher = "Springer Netherlands",

number = "3-4",

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Katsman, CA, Sterl, A, Beersma, JJ, van den Brink, HW, Church, JA, Hazeleger, W, Kopp, RE, Kroon, D, Kwadijk, J, Lammersen, R, Lowe, J, Oppenheimer, M, Plag, HP, Ridley, J, von Storch, H, Vaughan, DG, Vellinga, P, Vermeersen, LLA, van de Wal, RSW & Weisse, R 2011, 'Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example', Climatic Change, vol. 109, no. 3-4, pp. 617-645. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

TY - JOUR

T1 - Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example

AU - Katsman, Caroline A.

AU - Sterl, A.

AU - Beersma, J. J.

AU - van den Brink, H. W.

AU - Church, J. A.

AU - Hazeleger, W.

AU - Kopp, R. E.

AU - Kroon, D.

AU - Kwadijk, J.

AU - Lammersen, R.

AU - Lowe, J.

AU - Oppenheimer, M.

AU - Plag, H. P.

AU - Ridley, J.

AU - von Storch, H.

AU - Vaughan, D. G.

AU - Vellinga, P.

AU - Vermeersen, L. L.A.

AU - van de Wal, R. S.W.

AU - Weisse, R.

N1 - Funding Information: Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the members of the Dutch Delta Committee, and in particular Pavel Kabat, for initiating this research. J.A.C. was partly funded by the Australian Climate Change Science Program and the Pacific Climate Change Science Program, which is supported by AusAID, in collaboration with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. R.E.K. was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship in the Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy program at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University.

PY - 2011/12

Y1 - 2011/12

N2 - Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country's flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0. 55 to 1. 15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0. 40 to 1. 05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.

AB - Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country's flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0. 55 to 1. 15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0. 40 to 1. 05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.

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DO - 10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:81555195669

SN - 0165-0009

VL - 109

SP - 617

EP - 645

JO - Climatic Change

JF - Climatic Change

IS - 3-4

ER -

Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta-the Netherlands as an example

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