TY - JOUR
T1 - Experimental study of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial cultural market
AU - Salganik, Matthew J.
AU - Dodds, Peter Sheridan
AU - Watts, Duncan J.
PY - 2006/2/10
Y1 - 2006/2/10
N2 - Hit songs, books, and movies are many times more successful than average, suggesting that "the best" alternatives are qualitatively different from "the rest"; yet experts routinely fail to predict which products will succeed. We investigated this paradox experimentally, by creating an artificial "music market" in which 14,341 participants downloaded previously unknown songs either with or without knowledge of previous participants' choices. Increasing the strength of social influence increased both inequality and unpredictability of success. Success was also only partly determined by quality: The best songs rarely did poorly, and the worst rarely did well, but any other result was possible.
AB - Hit songs, books, and movies are many times more successful than average, suggesting that "the best" alternatives are qualitatively different from "the rest"; yet experts routinely fail to predict which products will succeed. We investigated this paradox experimentally, by creating an artificial "music market" in which 14,341 participants downloaded previously unknown songs either with or without knowledge of previous participants' choices. Increasing the strength of social influence increased both inequality and unpredictability of success. Success was also only partly determined by quality: The best songs rarely did poorly, and the worst rarely did well, but any other result was possible.
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U2 - 10.1126/science.1121066
DO - 10.1126/science.1121066
M3 - Article
C2 - 16469928
AN - SCOPUS:32444446121
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 311
SP - 854
EP - 856
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 5762
ER -