TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
AU - Desmet, Klaus
AU - Kopp, Robert E.
AU - Kulp, Scott A.
AU - Nagy, Dávid Krisztián
AU - Oppenheimer, Michael
AU - Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
AU - Strauss, Benjamin H.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021
PY - 2021/4
Y1 - 2021/4
N2 - Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.
AB - Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.
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U2 - 10.1257/mac.20180366
DO - 10.1257/mac.20180366
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85134019406
SN - 1945-7707
VL - 13
SP - 444
EP - 486
JO - American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
JF - American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
IS - 2
ER -