Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding

Klaus Desmet, Robert E. Kopp, Scott A. Kulp, Dávid Krisztián Nagy, Michael Oppenheimer, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Benjamin H. Strauss

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Scopus citations

Abstract

Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)444-486
Number of pages43
JournalAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Volume13
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Apr 2021
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)

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