TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding
AU - Desmet, Klaus
AU - Kopp, Robert E.
AU - Kulp, Scott A.
AU - Nagy, Dávid Krisztián
AU - Oppenheimer, Michael
AU - Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
AU - Strauss, Benjamin H.
N1 - Funding Information:
* Desmet: Department of Economics and Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University, 3300 Dyer Street, Suite 301, Dallas, TX 75205 (email: kdesmet@smu.edu); Kopp: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Wright Labs, 610 Taylor Road, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854 (email: robert.kopp@rutgers.edu); Kulp: Climate Central, One Palmer Square, Suite 402, Princeton, NJ 08542 (email: skulp@climatecentral.org); Nagy: CREI, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27, 08005 Barcelona, Spain (email: dnagy@crei.cat); Oppenheimer: Department of Geosciences and School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, 313 Robertson Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 (email: omichael@princeton.edu); Rossi-Hansberg: Department of Economics, Princeton University, 289 Julis Romo Rabinowitz Building, Princeton, NJ 08544 (email: erossi@princeton.edu); Strauss: Climate Central, One Palmer Square, Suite 402, Princeton, NJ 08542 (email: bstrauss@climatecentral.org). Virgiliu Midrigan was coeditor for this article. Desmet and Rossi-Hansberg acknowledge the support and hospitality of PERC while doing part of this research. Kopp, Kulp, and Strauss were supported in part by US National Science Foundation grant ICER-1663807 and by National Aeronautics and Space Administration grant 80NSSC17K0698. Nagy acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, through the Severo Ochoa Program for Centers of Excellence in R&D (SEV-2015-0563) and the Juan de la Cierva Grant (FJCI-2017-34728); and from the Government of Catalonia, through CERCA and SGR Program (2017-SGR-1393). Oppenheimer acknowledges support from US National Science Foundation Award Number 1520683. Adrien Bilal, Mathilde Le Moigne, Charley Porcher, and Maximilian Vogler provided excellent research assistance.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021
PY - 2021/4
Y1 - 2021/4
N2 - Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.
AB - Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent.
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U2 - 10.1257/mac.20180366
DO - 10.1257/mac.20180366
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85134019406
SN - 1945-7707
VL - 13
SP - 444
EP - 486
JO - American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
JF - American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
IS - 2
ER -