Evaluating strategies to address material supply–demand gaps in the US electric vehicle battery supply chain

To address supply shortfalls in the electric vehicle battery supply chain, US policy has prioritized expanding domestic production. However, we find that this strategy alone cannot meet future material demand. If announced projects materialize, domestic production can meet 2035 demand for raw lithium, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, electrolytes and separators used in major battery chemistries. However, many other materials still face substantial and persistent gaps even with demand-side strategies, including improved material efficiency, enhanced battery recycling and battery chemistry shifts. Shortfalls of ~30–70% persist for upstream cobalt, graphite, nickel and their midstream refined materials. For some of these materials, gaps may widen because ~30–100% of projected domestic supplies rely on early-stage projects, which may not advance. Downstream, cathode and anode active materials face ~15–75% shortfalls. Therefore, securing US battery materials will require investment across the domestic supply chain, reductions and shifts in material demand and international sourcing.