Evaluating CMIP5 ocean biogeochemistry and Southern Ocean carbon uptake using atmospheric potential oxygen: Present-day performance and future projection

C. D. Nevison, M. Manizza, R. F. Keeling, B. B. Stephens, J. D. Bent, J. Dunne, T. Ilyina, M. Long, Laure Resplandy, J. Tjiputra, S. Yukimoto

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

Observed seasonal cycles in atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2 + 1.1 CO2) were used to evaluate eight ocean biogeochemistry models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model APO seasonal cycles were computed from the CMIP5 air-sea O2 and CO2 fluxes and compared to observations at three Southern Hemisphere monitoring sites. Four of the models captured either the observed APO seasonal amplitude or phasing relatively well, while the other four did not. Many models had an unrealistic seasonal phasing or amplitude of the CO2 flux, which in turn influenced APO. By 2100 under RCP8.5, the models projected little change in the O2 component of APO but large changes in the seasonality of the CO2 component associated with ocean acidification. The models with poorer performance on present-day APO tended to project larger net carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean, both today and in 2100.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)2077-2085
Number of pages9
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume43
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 16 2016

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Geophysics
  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)

Keywords

  • APO
  • CMIP5 models
  • Southern Ocean carbon cycle
  • air-sea fluxes
  • carbon cycle
  • ocean carbon sink

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Evaluating CMIP5 ocean biogeochemistry and Southern Ocean carbon uptake using atmospheric potential oxygen: Present-day performance and future projection'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Nevison, C. D., Manizza, M., Keeling, R. F., Stephens, B. B., Bent, J. D., Dunne, J., Ilyina, T., Long, M., Resplandy, L., Tjiputra, J., & Yukimoto, S. (2016). Evaluating CMIP5 ocean biogeochemistry and Southern Ocean carbon uptake using atmospheric potential oxygen: Present-day performance and future projection. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(5), 2077-2085. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067584