@article{46641c95844b45a282c5a847bb5ce818,
title = "Estuarine Forecasts at Daily Weather to Subseasonal Time Scales",
abstract = "Most present forecast systems for estuaries predict conditions for only a few days into the future. However, there are many reasons to expect that skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for longer time periods, including increasingly skillful extended atmospheric forecasts, the potential for lasting impacts of atmospheric forcing on estuarine conditions, and the predictability of tidal cycles. In this study, we test whether skillful estuarine forecasts are possible for up to 35 days into the future by combining an estuarine model of Chesapeake Bay with 35-day atmospheric forecasts from an operational weather model. When compared with both a hindcast simulation from the same estuarine model and with observations, the estuarine forecasts for surface water temperature are skillful up to about 2 weeks into the future, and the forecasts for bottom temperature, surface and bottom salinity, and density stratification are skillful for all or the majority of the forecast period. Bottom oxygen forecasts are skillful when compared to the model hindcast, but not when compared with observations. We also find that skill for all variables in the estuary can be improved by taking the mean of multiple estuarine forecasts driven by an ensemble of atmospheric forecasts. Finally, we examine the forecasts in detail using two case studies of extreme events, and we discuss opportunities for improving the forecast skill.",
keywords = "Chesapeake Bay, forecasting, prediction, subseasonal",
author = "Ross, {Andrew C.} and Stock, {Charles A.} and Dixon, {Keith W.} and Friedrichs, {Marjorie A.M.} and Hood, {Raleigh R.} and Ming Li and Kathleen Pegion and Vincent Saba and Vecchi, {Gabriel A.}",
note = "Funding Information: The authors thank Nathaniel Johnson and Jessica Luo for providing helpful reviews of a draft of this manuscript and three reviewers for providing additional helpful comments. This manuscript was prepared by the authors under Award NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, and with funding from the Integrated Ecosystem Assessment program. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the U.S. Department of Commerce. NOAA/MAPP, ONR, NASA, and NOAA/NWS jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the SubX system. NOS, COMT, NCCOS, and NASA provided funding that supported development of the ChesROMS model. Funding Information: The authors thank Nathaniel Johnson and Jessica Luo for providing helpful reviews of a draft of this manuscript and three reviewers for providing additional helpful comments. This manuscript was prepared by the authors under Award NA18OAR4320123 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce, and with funding from the Integrated Ecosystem Assessment program. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or the U.S. Department of Commerce. NOAA/MAPP, ONR, NASA, and NOAA/NWS jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the SubX system. NOS, COMT, NCCOS, and NASA provided funding that supported development of the ChesROMS model. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2020. The Authors.",
year = "2020",
month = oct,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1029/2020EA001179",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "7",
journal = "Earth and Space Science",
issn = "2333-5084",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd",
number = "10",
}