Estimating tuberculosis incidence from primary survey data: A mathematical modeling approach

S. Pandey, V. K. Chadha, R. Laxminarayan, N. Arinaminpathy

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

24 Scopus citations


BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for improved estimations of the burden of tuberculosis (TB). OBJECTIVE : To develop a new quantitative method based on mathematical modelling, and to demonstrate its application to TB in India. DESIGN: We developed a simple model of TB transmission dynamics to estimate the annual incidence of TB disease from the annual risk of tuberculous infection and prevalence of smear-positive TB. We first compared model estimates for annual infections per smear-positive TB case using previous empirical estimates from China, Korea and the Philippines.We then applied the model to estimate TB incidence in India, stratified by urban and rural settings. RESULT S : Study model estimates show agreement with previous empirical estimates. Applied to India, the model suggests an annual incidence of smear-positive TB of 89.8 per 100 000 population (95%CI 56.8- 156.3). Results show differences in urban and rural TB: while an urban TB case infects more individuals per year, a rural TB case remains infectious for appreciably longer, suggesting the need for interventions tailored to these different settings. CONCLUS IONS : Simple models of TB transmission, in conjunction with necessary data, can offer approaches to burden estimation that complement those currently being used.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)366-374
Number of pages9
JournalInternational Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease
Issue number4
StatePublished - Apr 1 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
  • Infectious Diseases


  • ARTI
  • Duration
  • Prevalence
  • Transmission


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