Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states

Ramanan Laxminarayan, Brian Wahl, Shankar Reddy Dudala, K. Gopal, Chandra B. Mohan, S. Neelima, K. S. Jawahar Reddy, J. Radhakrishnan, Joseph A. Lewnard

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

302 Scopus citations

Abstract

Although most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in low-resource countries, little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in such contexts. Data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide a detailed view into severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission pathways and mortality in a high-incidence setting. Reported cases and deaths have been concentrated in younger cohorts than would be expected from observations in higher-income countries, even after accounting for demographic differences across settings. Among 575,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases, infection probabilities ranged from 4.7 to 10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contact types, respectively. Same-age contacts were associated with the greatest infection risk. Case fatality ratios spanned 0.05% at ages of 5 to 17 years to 16.6% at ages of 85 years or more. Primary data from low-resource countries are urgently needed to guide control measures.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number691
JournalScience
Volume370
Issue number6517
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 6 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

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