Enso extremes and diversity: Dynamics, teleconnections, and impacts

In boreal spring of 2014, the tropical Pacific was primed for an El Niño, when most forecast agen?cies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology elevated their El Niño probability to more than 60%. A remarkable increase in warm water volume with a series of westerly wind bursts in boreal spring alerted the El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) experts to the possibility of a strong event. The mean climate, upon which ENSO evolved, varied on multi-decadal time scales, manifesting itself as a global-scale phenom?enon in what is commonly known as the IPO or PDO.