Efficient extension to mixture techniques for prediction and decision trees

We present a method for maintaining mixtures of prunings of a prediction or decision tree that extends the `node-based' prunings of [Bun90, WST95, HS95] to the larger class of edge-based prunings. The method includes an efficient online weight allocation algorithm that can be used for prediction, compression and classification. Although the set of edge-based prunings of a given tree is much larger than that of node-based prunings, our algorithm has similar space and time complexity to that of previous mixture algorithms for trees. Using the general on-line framework of Freund and Schapire [FS95], we prove that our algorithm maintains correctly the mixture weights for edge-based prunings with any bounded loss function. We also give a similar algorithm for the logarithmic loss function with a corresponding weight allocation algorithm. Finally, we describe experiments comparing node-based and edge-based mixture models for estimating the probability of the next word in English text, which show the advantages of edge-based models.