Effect of variability in infection period on the persistence and spatial spread of infectious diseases

M. J. Keeling, B. T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

44 Scopus citations

Abstract

The effects of the mean infection (incubation plus infectious) period on the dynamics of infectious diseases are well understood. We examine the dynamics and persistence of epidemics when the distribution of the infection period also is modelled, using the well-documented childhood disease measles as a test case. We pay particular attention to the differences between exponentially distributed and constant periods. The use of constant periods increases the persistence of epidemics by reducing the individual stochasticity. The infection period distribution is also shown to have a significant effect on the spatial spread of disease.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)207-226
Number of pages20
JournalMathematical Biosciences
Volume147
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 15 1998

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Immunology and Microbiology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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