Econometrics for policy analysis: Progress and regress

Progress, regress, and continuity in quantitative analysis for policy are discussed. We look at the present from the perspective of Tinbergen, Haavelmo, and Keynes. Probability modeling has been in retreat at central banks and elsewhere. New computational methods, though, are making Bayesian analysis of previously intractable problems possible, and at the same time appreciation of the clarity with which Bayesian data analyis integrates with decison-making is spreading.