Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape

M. J. Keeling; M. E.J. Woolhouse; D. J. Shaw; L. Matthews; M. Chase-Topping; D. T. Haydon; S. J. Cornell; J. Kappey; J. Wilesmith; B. T. Grenfell

doi:10.1126/science.1065973

Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape

M. J. Keeling, M. E.J. Woolhouse, D. J. Shaw, L. Matthews, M. Chase-Topping, D. T. Haydon, S. J. Cornell, J. Kappey, J. Wilesmith, B. T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

715 Scopus citations

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	813-817
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	294
Issue number	5543
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1065973
State	Published - Oct 26 2001
Externally published	Yes

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title = "Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape",

abstract = "Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.",

author = "Keeling, {M. J.} and Woolhouse, {M. E.J.} and Shaw, {D. J.} and L. Matthews and M. Chase-Topping and Haydon, {D. T.} and Cornell, {S. J.} and J. Kappey and J. Wilesmith and Grenfell, {B. T.}",

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T2 - Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape

AU - Keeling, M. J.

AU - Woolhouse, M. E.J.

AU - Shaw, D. J.

AU - Matthews, L.

AU - Chase-Topping, M.

AU - Haydon, D. T.

AU - Cornell, S. J.

AU - Kappey, J.

AU - Wilesmith, J.

AU - Grenfell, B. T.

PY - 2001/10/26

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AB - Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.

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Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape

Abstract

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