Dynamics of internal displacement and conflict in Somalia

Internal displacement is an important tactic of eliminationist politics. Somalia is arguably the country most affected — internally displaced people (IDPs) comprise 22% of the Somali population, totaling more than 3.5 million. In this paper I explore the dynamics of IDP-hosting in Somalia, using comprehensive data on migrant flows and newly-released conflict microdata. Using a two-part research design that balances description and inference, I study patterns of IDP movement and the consequences of internal displacement for conflict in IDP-hosting communities. In the first part of the analysis I find that common factors shape patterns of conflict-induced and climate-induced displacement. Consistent with choice-based, utility-maximising models, IDPs flow from violent, poor, and climate-vulnerable areas to safer, wealthier, and more climate-resilient areas. Turning to the consequences of IDP inflows, I develop and test an argument linking displacement and information-centric theories of violence. In response to inflows of IDPs about whom they lack detailed knowledge, insurgents escalate information-gathering efforts to discern IDPs’ identities and engage in intimidation to dissuade collaboration with counterinsurgents. I also find that IDP inflows are linked with worsening communal conflict. Together, these results illuminate the dynamics of internal displacement and contribute to scholarship on displacement as a tactic of eliminationist politics.