Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.
|Number of pages
|Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|Published - Nov 30 2004
All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes
- Demographic stochasticity
- Disease dynamics
- Susceptible, infectious, recovered (SIR)