Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics

Jonathan Dushoff; Joshua B. Plotkin; Simon Asher Levin; David J.D. Earn

doi:10.1073/pnas.0407293101

Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics

Jonathan Dushoff, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon Asher Levin, David J.D. Earn

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

295 Scopus citations

Abstract

Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	16915-16916
Number of pages	2
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	101
Issue number	48
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0407293101
State	Published - Nov 30 2004

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General

Keywords

Demographic stochasticity
Disease dynamics
Immunity
Susceptible, infectious, recovered (SIR)

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10.1073/pnas.0407293101

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abstract = "Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.",

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AU - Plotkin, Joshua B.

AU - Levin, Simon Asher

AU - Earn, David J.D.

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N2 - Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.

AB - Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.

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KW - Disease dynamics

KW - Immunity

KW - Susceptible, infectious, recovered (SIR)

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JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

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ER -

Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Keywords

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