Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics

Jonathan Dushoff, Joshua B. Plotkin, Simon Asher Levin, David J.D. Earn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

286 Scopus citations


Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)16915-16916
Number of pages2
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Issue number48
StatePublished - Nov 30 2004

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General


  • Demographic stochasticity
  • Disease dynamics
  • Immunity
  • Susceptible, infectious, recovered (SIR)


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