Dynamic integration of time- And state-domain methods for volatility estimation

Jianqing Fan, Yingying Fan, Jiancheng Jiang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

20 Scopus citations

Abstract

Time- and state-domain methods are two common approaches to nonparametric prediction. Whereas the former uses data predominantly from recent history, the latter relies mainly on historical information. Combining these two pieces of valuable information is an interesting challenge in statistics. We surmount this problem by dynamically integrating information from both the time and state domains. The estimators from these two domains are optimally combined based on a data-driven weighting strategy, which provides a more efficient estimator of volatility. Asymptotic normality is separately established for the time domain, the state domain, and the integrated estimators. By comparing the efficiency of the estimators, we demonstrate that the proposed integrated estimator uniformly dominates the other two estimators. The proposed dynamic integration approach is also applicable to other estimation problems in time series. Extensive simulations are conducted to demonstrate that the newly proposed procedure outperforms some popular ones, such as the RiskMetrics and historical simulation approaches, among others. In addition, empirical studies convincingly endorse our integration method.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)618-631
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of the American Statistical Association
Volume102
Issue number478
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2007
Externally publishedYes

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

Keywords

  • Bayes
  • Dynamical integration
  • Smoothing
  • State domain
  • Time domain
  • Volatility

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Dynamic integration of time- And state-domain methods for volatility estimation'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this