Dominant role of subtropical pacific warming in extreme Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons: 2015 and the future

Hiroyuki Murakami, Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Thomas L. Delworth, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Seth Underwood, Richard Gudgel, Xiaosong Yang, Liwei Jia, Fanrong Zeng, Karen Paffendorf, Wei Zhang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

29 Scopus citations

Abstract

The 2015 hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean (EPO and CPO), particularly around Hawaii, was extremely active, including a record number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and the first instance of three simultaneous category-4 hurricanes in the EPO and CPO. A strong El Niño developed during the 2015 boreal summer season and was attributed by some to be the cause of the extreme number of TCs. However, according to a suite of targeted high-resolution model experiments, the extreme 2015 EPO and CPO hurricane season was not primarily induced by the 2015 El Niño tropical Pacific warming, but by warming in the subtropical Pacific Ocean. This warming is not typical of El Niño, but rather of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. Although the likelihood of such an extreme year depends on the phase of natural variability, the coupled GCM projects an increase in the frequency of such extremely active TC years over the next few decades for EPO, CPO, and Hawaii as a result of enhanced subtropical Pacific warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)243-264
Number of pages22
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume30
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Atmospheric Science

Keywords

  • Climate variability
  • Hindcasts
  • Interannual variability; Multidecadal variability
  • Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
  • Tropical cyclones

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    Murakami, H., Vecchi, G. A., Delworth, T. L., Wittenberg, A. T., Underwood, S., Gudgel, R., Yang, X., Jia, L., Zeng, F., Paffendorf, K., & Zhang, W. (2017). Dominant role of subtropical pacific warming in extreme Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons: 2015 and the future. Journal of Climate, 30(1), 243-264. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0424.1