TY - JOUR
T1 - Dominant role of subtropical pacific warming in extreme Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons
T2 - 2015 and the future
AU - Murakami, Hiroyuki
AU - Vecchi, Gabriel Andres
AU - Delworth, Thomas L.
AU - Wittenberg, Andrew T.
AU - Underwood, Seth
AU - Gudgel, Richard
AU - Yang, Xiaosong
AU - Jia, Liwei
AU - Zeng, Fanrong
AU - Paffendorf, Karen
AU - Zhang, Wei
PY - 2017/1/1
Y1 - 2017/1/1
N2 - The 2015 hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean (EPO and CPO), particularly around Hawaii, was extremely active, including a record number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and the first instance of three simultaneous category-4 hurricanes in the EPO and CPO. A strong El Niño developed during the 2015 boreal summer season and was attributed by some to be the cause of the extreme number of TCs. However, according to a suite of targeted high-resolution model experiments, the extreme 2015 EPO and CPO hurricane season was not primarily induced by the 2015 El Niño tropical Pacific warming, but by warming in the subtropical Pacific Ocean. This warming is not typical of El Niño, but rather of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. Although the likelihood of such an extreme year depends on the phase of natural variability, the coupled GCM projects an increase in the frequency of such extremely active TC years over the next few decades for EPO, CPO, and Hawaii as a result of enhanced subtropical Pacific warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing.
AB - The 2015 hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean (EPO and CPO), particularly around Hawaii, was extremely active, including a record number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and the first instance of three simultaneous category-4 hurricanes in the EPO and CPO. A strong El Niño developed during the 2015 boreal summer season and was attributed by some to be the cause of the extreme number of TCs. However, according to a suite of targeted high-resolution model experiments, the extreme 2015 EPO and CPO hurricane season was not primarily induced by the 2015 El Niño tropical Pacific warming, but by warming in the subtropical Pacific Ocean. This warming is not typical of El Niño, but rather of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. Although the likelihood of such an extreme year depends on the phase of natural variability, the coupled GCM projects an increase in the frequency of such extremely active TC years over the next few decades for EPO, CPO, and Hawaii as a result of enhanced subtropical Pacific warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing.
KW - Climate variability
KW - Hindcasts
KW - Interannual variability; Multidecadal variability
KW - Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
KW - Tropical cyclones
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85008178605&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0424.1
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0424.1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85008178605
VL - 30
SP - 243
EP - 264
JO - Journal of Climate
JF - Journal of Climate
SN - 0894-8755
IS - 1
ER -