Divergent Position Taking Under Uncertainty With an Application to Chile's 2021–2022 Constituent Convention

Sometimes politicians must take indelible public stances under unresolved uncertainty about an outcome they cannot control, for example, consider the minority on a proposal that is bound to pass. Counter to the expectations that party platforms converge, and that rational individuals balk at betting against one another, we show this can lead office motivated politicians with shared beliefs and policy preferences to adopt divergent positions. To illustrate the workings of our model, and to provide guidance on discerning whether it applies in a given situation, we apply it in the context of Chile's Constituent Assembly of (Formula presented.).