Differential impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemiological dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus subtypes A and B

Inga Holmdahl, Samantha J. Bents, Rachel E. Baker, Jean Sebastien Casalegno, Nídia Sequeira Trovão, Sang Woo Park, Jessica E. Metcalf, Cécile Viboud, Bryan Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic have disrupted the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) on a global scale; however, the cycling of RSV subtypes in the pre- and post-pandemic period remains poorly understood. Here, we used a two subtype RSV model supplemented with epidemiological data to study the impact of NPIs on the two circulating subtypes, RSV-A and RSV-B. The model is calibrated to historic RSV subtype data from the United Kingdom and Finland and predicts a tendency for RSV-A dominance over RSV-B immediately following the implementation of NPIs. Using a global genetic dataset, we confirm that RSV-A has prevailed over RSV-B in the post-pandemic period, consistent with a higher R0 for RSV-A. With new RSV infant monoclonals and maternal and elderly vaccines becoming widely available, these results may have important implications for understanding intervention effectiveness in the context of disrupted subtype dynamics.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number14527
JournalScientific reports
Volume14
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2024

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

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