Developing time-variant filter for meso-scale surface temperature prediction

Byeongseong Choi, Matteo Pozzi, Mario Berges, Elie Bou-Zeid

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution


Many urban areas are vulnerable to heat-induced hazards. In the so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI), trapped heat flux within the building canopy increases the surface temperature of cities, and it is revealed that UHI has a non-linear synergy with extreme heatwaves. Therefore, fast/accurate temperature prediction is essential to mitigate the risk, improving the community's resilience. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic model to forecast the meso-scale surface temperature, at a relatively low computational cost. The proposed model is developed to reduce the computational cost of the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. We calibrate the proposed model by processing the outcomes of an NWP model (i.e., the Princeton Urban Canopy Model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecast; WRF-PUCM) that reanalyzes historical temperature. The calibrated model is integrated into a Kalman-Filter scheme to update the predictions with the collected data.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationIABSE Conference, Seoul 2020
Subtitle of host publicationRisk Intelligence of Infrastructures - Report
PublisherInternational Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE)
Number of pages7
ISBN (Electronic)9783857481758
StatePublished - 2021
EventIABSE Conference Seoul 2020: Risk Intelligence of Infrastructures - Seoul, Korea, Republic of
Duration: Nov 9 2020Nov 10 2020

Publication series

NameIABSE Conference, Seoul 2020: Risk Intelligence of Infrastructures - Report


ConferenceIABSE Conference Seoul 2020: Risk Intelligence of Infrastructures
Country/TerritoryKorea, Republic of

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Building and Construction
  • Civil and Structural Engineering


  • Dimension reduction
  • Hidden Markov model
  • Kalman-filter
  • Probabilistic modeling
  • Surface temperature


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