Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics

Virginia E. Pitzer; Cécile Viboud; Lone Simonsen; Claudia Steiner; Catherine A. Panozzo; Wladimir J. Alonso; Mark A. Miller; Roger I. Glass; John W. Glasser; Umesh D. Parashar; Bryan T. Grenfell

doi:10.1126/science.1172330

Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics

Virginia E. Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Claudia Steiner, Catherine A. Panozzo, Wladimir J. Alonso, Mark A. Miller, Roger I. Glass, John W. Glasser, Umesh D. Parashar, Bryan T. Grenfell

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196 Scopus citations

Abstract

Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	290-294
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	325
Issue number	5938
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172330
State	Published - Jul 17 2009
Externally published	Yes

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title = "Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics",

abstract = "Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.",

author = "Pitzer, {Virginia E.} and C{\'e}cile Viboud and Lone Simonsen and Claudia Steiner and Panozzo, {Catherine A.} and Alonso, {Wladimir J.} and Miller, {Mark A.} and Glass, {Roger I.} and Glasser, {John W.} and Parashar, {Umesh D.} and Grenfell, {Bryan T.}",

note = "Funding Information: This research was supported by NSF AGS1048995 and by DOE DE-SC0006679 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models (EaSM) program. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RLO 1830. CMAP precipitation data and NCEP reanalysis data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) provided computational resources. The data and codes for these results are posted at http://portal.nersc.gov/project/m1374/CRE_EaSM.",

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AU - Viboud, Cécile

AU - Simonsen, Lone

AU - Steiner, Claudia

AU - Panozzo, Catherine A.

AU - Alonso, Wladimir J.

AU - Miller, Mark A.

AU - Glass, Roger I.

AU - Glasser, John W.

AU - Parashar, Umesh D.

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

N1 - Funding Information: This research was supported by NSF AGS1048995 and by DOE DE-SC0006679 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models (EaSM) program. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RLO 1830. CMAP precipitation data and NCEP reanalysis data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) provided computational resources. The data and codes for these results are posted at http://portal.nersc.gov/project/m1374/CRE_EaSM.

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N2 - Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.

AB - Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.

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Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics

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