Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics

Virginia E. Pitzer; Cécile Viboud; Lone Simonsen; Claudia Steiner; Catherine A. Panozzo; Wladimir J. Alonso; Mark A. Miller; Roger I. Glass; John W. Glasser; Umesh D. Parashar; Bryan T. Grenfell

doi:10.1126/science.1172330

Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics

Virginia E. Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Claudia Steiner, Catherine A. Panozzo, Wladimir J. Alonso, Mark A. Miller, Roger I. Glass, John W. Glasser, Umesh D. Parashar, Bryan T. Grenfell

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

209 Scopus citations

Abstract

Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	290-294
Number of pages	5
Journal	Science
Volume	325
Issue number	5938
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1172330
State	Published - Jul 17 2009

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General

Access to Document

10.1126/science.1172330

Cite this

@article{c3e52725bd9341e3a93cbf8573c880d8,

title = "Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics",

abstract = "Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.",

author = "Pitzer, {Virginia E.} and C{\'e}cile Viboud and Lone Simonsen and Claudia Steiner and Panozzo, {Catherine A.} and Alonso, {Wladimir J.} and Miller, {Mark A.} and Glass, {Roger I.} and Glasser, {John W.} and Parashar, {Umesh D.} and Grenfell, {Bryan T.}",

note = "Funding Information: This research was supported by NSF AGS1048995 and by DOE DE-SC0006679 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models (EaSM) program. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RLO 1830. CMAP precipitation data and NCEP reanalysis data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) provided computational resources. The data and codes for these results are posted at http://portal.nersc.gov/project/m1374/CRE_EaSM.",

year = "2009",

month = jul,

day = "17",

doi = "10.1126/science.1172330",

language = "English (US)",

volume = "325",

pages = "290--294",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "5938",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics

AU - Pitzer, Virginia E.

AU - Viboud, Cécile

AU - Simonsen, Lone

AU - Steiner, Claudia

AU - Panozzo, Catherine A.

AU - Alonso, Wladimir J.

AU - Miller, Mark A.

AU - Glass, Roger I.

AU - Glasser, John W.

AU - Parashar, Umesh D.

AU - Grenfell, Bryan T.

N1 - Funding Information: This research was supported by NSF AGS1048995 and by DOE DE-SC0006679 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models (EaSM) program. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for the DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RLO 1830. CMAP precipitation data and NCEP reanalysis data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. The National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC) provided computational resources. The data and codes for these results are posted at http://portal.nersc.gov/project/m1374/CRE_EaSM.

PY - 2009/7/17

Y1 - 2009/7/17

N2 - Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.

AB - Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=67650815504&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=67650815504&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/science.1172330

DO - 10.1126/science.1172330

M3 - Article

C2 - 19608910

AN - SCOPUS:67650815504

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 325

SP - 290

EP - 294

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 5938

ER -

Demographic variability, vaccination, and the spatiotemporal dynamics of rotavirus epidemics

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this