Data-driven prediction of battery cycle life before capacity degradation

Accurately predicting the lifetime of complex, nonlinear systems such as lithium-ion batteries is critical for accelerating technology development. However, diverse aging mechanisms, significant device variability and dynamic operating conditions have remained major challenges. We generate a comprehensive dataset consisting of 124 commercial lithium iron phosphate/graphite cells cycled under fast-charging conditions, with widely varying cycle lives ranging from 150 to 2,300 cycles. Using discharge voltage curves from early cycles yet to exhibit capacity degradation, we apply machine-learning tools to both predict and classify cells by cycle life. Our best models achieve 9.1% test error for quantitatively predicting cycle life using the first 100 cycles (exhibiting a median increase of 0.2% from initial capacity) and 4.9% test error using the first 5 cycles for classifying cycle life into two groups. This work highlights the promise of combining deliberate data generation with data-driven modelling to predict the behaviour of complex dynamical systems.