@article{be061f498c1a4536aa3311826b207103,
title = "Damaging democracy? Security provision and turnout in Afghan elections†",
abstract = "In emerging democracies, elections are encouraged as a route to democratization. However, not only does violence often threaten these elections, but citizens often view as corrupt the security forces deployed to combat violence. We examine the effects of such security provision. In Afghanistan's 2010 parliamentary election, polling centers with similar histories of pre-election violence unintentionally received different deployments of the Afghan National Police, enabling identification of police's effects on turnout. Using data from the universe of polling sites and various household surveys, data usually unavailable in conflict settings, we estimate increases in police presence decreased voter turnout by an average of 30%. Our results adjudicate between competing theoretical mechanisms through which security forces could affect turnout, and show behavior is not driven by voter anticipation of election-day violence. This highlights a pitfall for building government legitimacy via elections in weakly institutionalized and conflict-affected states.",
author = "Condra, {Luke N.} and Michael Callen and Iyengar, {Radha K.} and Long, {James D.} and Shapiro, {Jacob N.}",
note = "Funding Information: The authors are grateful for the help and support provided by Democracy International, the International Security and Assistance Forces in Afghanistan, and Afghan Ministry of Interior. Eli Berman, James Dobbins, James Fearon, Clark Gibson, Stathis Kalyvas, Alex Kuo, Eddy Malesky, Gerard Padr{\'o} i Miquel, Jon Pevehouse, Eric Schwab, Niloufer Siddiqui, Austin Wright, and participants at the International Relations Colloquium of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the Order, Conflict, and Violence Workshop of Yale University provided helpful comments. Torben Behmer, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, Shahim Kabuli, and Manu Singh provided expert research assistance. We thank Andrew Shaver and Austin Wright for sharing their data. We thank the editor and anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions. The Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies [Long] and The U.S. Department of Defense's Minerva Initiative (AFOSR Grant FA9550-09-1-0314) provided generous funding. The authors fully and solely designed and executed the study and any opinions, findings, conclusions are those of the authors alone and do not reflect views of the United States Department of Defense, Democracy International, or institutions with which the authors hold affiliation. Funding Information: Shaver and Austin Wright for sharing their data. We thank the editor and anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions. The Harvard Academy for International and Area Studies [Long] and The U.S. Department of Defense's Minerva Initiative (AFOSR Grant FA9550-09-1-0314) provided generous funding. The authors fully and solely designed and executed the study and any opinions, findings, conclusions are those of the authors alone and do not reflect views of the United States Department of Defense, Democracy International, or institutions with which the authors hold affiliation. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd",
year = "2019",
month = jul,
doi = "10.1111/ecpo.12128",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "31",
pages = "163--193",
journal = "Economics and Politics",
issn = "0954-1985",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "2",
}