TY - JOUR
T1 - Current status and future potential of rooftop solar adoption in the United States
AU - Lemay, Amélie C.
AU - Wagner, Sigurd
AU - Rand, Barry P.
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was supported by Princeton University's Office of Undergraduate Research Undergraduate Fund for Academic Conferences and the Peter B. Lewis Fund for Student Innovation in Energy and the Environment of the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment.
Funding Information:
Three state-level policies were considered as predictors: net metering, Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), and 3rd party solar power purchase agreements (PPA). There was a significant positive correlation with net metering, while RPS and PPA policies had no significant effect. The strength of net metering and retail electricity price as predictors underscore that anticipated financial savings are strong incentives towards solar adoption. This finding has implications for future decisions regarding net metering in the U.S. The values and drawbacks of net metering have been the subject of recent debate, particularly regarding the potential for net metering to shift the fixed costs of electric utilities to customers without PV panels (NREL). As a result, several states, such as Hawaii, have eliminated net metering and implemented alternative policies (DSIRE). Our findings suggest that if such changes reduce direct homeowner compensation, however, there may be a slowdown in the rate of new PV system installations. Policies that avoid cost-shifting but continue to compensate PV installers ought to be extended for the foreseeable future to stimulate further rooftop PV adoption. Instituting policies to provide funding for maintaining or implementing direct compensation for the electricity produced by rooftop PV systems will likely prove effective in encouraging further adoption, as net metering and retail electricity price are strong predictors of PV adoption rate.This research was supported by Princeton University's Office of Undergraduate Research Undergraduate Fund for Academic Conferences and the Peter B. Lewis Fund for Student Innovation in Energy and the Environment of the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2023/6
Y1 - 2023/6
N2 - We utilize a dataset that measures existing rooftop solar installations and classifies rooftops in terms of insolation, azimuth angle and pitch, shading, and size, from aerial imagery last updated in 2017. Analysis of these data reveals that rooftop solar adoption, defined as the number of buildings with existing photovoltaic (PV) installations divided by the total number of eligible buildings, was on average low (mean of 0.93% for 10,417 U.S. ZIP codes). Regarding potential electricity generation, fifteen states could meet their residential electricity demand if panels were placed on all suitable buildings. We conduct a linear regression analysis to elucidate factors that positively (insolation, retail electricity price, Democratic voting fraction, net metering, fraction of science or engineering degree holders) and negatively (fraction of business or education degree holders) correlate with solar adoption. The results suggest anticipated electricity cost savings as a strong motivator for PV adoption, particularly in majority Republican areas, underscoring the importance of programs such as net metering that directly compensate homeowners for generated electricity. Knowledge and installation cost, however, remain barriers. Knowledge campaigns regarding technical aspects of installation and maintenance, as well as increased and stable financial incentives, may stimulate further PV deployment.
AB - We utilize a dataset that measures existing rooftop solar installations and classifies rooftops in terms of insolation, azimuth angle and pitch, shading, and size, from aerial imagery last updated in 2017. Analysis of these data reveals that rooftop solar adoption, defined as the number of buildings with existing photovoltaic (PV) installations divided by the total number of eligible buildings, was on average low (mean of 0.93% for 10,417 U.S. ZIP codes). Regarding potential electricity generation, fifteen states could meet their residential electricity demand if panels were placed on all suitable buildings. We conduct a linear regression analysis to elucidate factors that positively (insolation, retail electricity price, Democratic voting fraction, net metering, fraction of science or engineering degree holders) and negatively (fraction of business or education degree holders) correlate with solar adoption. The results suggest anticipated electricity cost savings as a strong motivator for PV adoption, particularly in majority Republican areas, underscoring the importance of programs such as net metering that directly compensate homeowners for generated electricity. Knowledge and installation cost, however, remain barriers. Knowledge campaigns regarding technical aspects of installation and maintenance, as well as increased and stable financial incentives, may stimulate further PV deployment.
KW - 3 party power purchase agreements
KW - Electricity generation
KW - Net metering
KW - Renewable portfolio standard
KW - Rooftop solar
KW - State-level policy
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U2 - 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113571
DO - 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113571
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85152898152
SN - 0301-4215
VL - 177
JO - Energy Policy
JF - Energy Policy
M1 - 113571
ER -