@article{cf2ba5219ad845cf99ef01c4c9881664,
title = "Counterfactual Analysis With Artificial Controls: Inference, High Dimensions, and Nonstationarity",
abstract = "Recently, there has been growing interest in developing statistical tools to conduct counterfactual analysis with aggregate data when a single “treated” unit suffers an intervention, such as a policy change, and there is no obvious control group. Usually, the proposed methods are based on the construction of an artificial counterfactual from a pool of “untre ated” peers, organized in a panel data structure. In this article, we consider a general framework for counterfactual analysis for high-dimensional, nonstationary data with either deterministic and/or stochastic trends, which nests well-established methods, such as the synthetic control. We propose a resampling procedure to test intervention effects that does not rely on postintervention asymptotics and that can be used even if there is only a single observation after the intervention. A simulation study is provided as well as an empirical application. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.",
keywords = "Cointegration, Comparative studies, Intervention, Policy evaluation, Resampling, Synthetic control, panel data",
author = "Ricardo Masini and Medeiros, {Marcelo C.}",
note = "Funding Information: The work of Marcelo C. Medeiros is partly funded by CNPq and CAPES. The authors gratefully acknowledge the invaluable comments and guidance of the guest coeditors, Alberto Abadie and Matias Cattaneo as well as three anonymous referees. The authors are thankful for the comments from Frank Diebold, Jianqing Fan, Marcelo Fernandes, Guido Imbens, Anders B. Kock, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Eduardo F. Mendes, Pedro Souza, Normam Swanson, Michael Wolf, and participants during seminars at Princeton University, Rutgers University, University of Pennsylvania, Warwick University, Oxford University, S{\~a}o Paulo School of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, and University of Brasilia as well as during the 2018 Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Guayaquil, Ecuador and the Barcelona GSE summer forum. A special acknowledgment goes to Eti{\"e}nne Wijler for insightful and technical discussions. Funding Information: The work of Marcelo C. Medeiros is partly funded by CNPq and CAPES. The authors gratefully acknowledge the invaluable comments and guidance of the guest coeditors, Alberto Abadie and Matias Cattaneo as well as three anonymous referees. The authors are thankful for the comments from Frank Diebold, Jianqing Fan, Marcelo Fernandes, Guido Imbens, Anders B. Kock, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Eduardo F. Mendes, Pedro Souza, Normam Swanson, Michael Wolf, and participants during seminars at Princeton University, Rutgers University, University of Pennsylvania, Warwick University, Oxford University, S?o Paulo School of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, and University of Brasilia as well as during the 2018 Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Guayaquil, Ecuador and the Barcelona GSE summer forum. A special acknowledgment goes to Eti?nne Wijler for insightful and technical discussions. The work of Marcelo C. Medeiros is partly funded by CNPq and CAPES. The authors gratefully acknowledge the invaluable comments and guidance of the guest coeditors, Alberto Abadie and Matias Cattaneo as well as three anonymous referees. The authors are thankful for the comments from Frank Diebold, Jianqing Fan, Marcelo Fernandes, Guido Imbens, Anders B. Kock, Sophocles Mavroeidis, Eduardo F. Mendes, Pedro Souza, Normam Swanson, Michael Wolf, and participants during seminars at Princeton University, Rutgers University, University of Pennsylvania, Warwick University, Oxford University, S?o Paulo School of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, and University of Brasilia as well as during the 2018 Latin American Meeting of the Econometric Society, Guayaquil, Ecuador and the Barcelona GSE summer forum. A special acknowledgment goes to Eti?nne Wijler for insightful and technical discussions. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 American Statistical Association.",
year = "2021",
doi = "10.1080/01621459.2021.1964978",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "116",
pages = "1773--1788",
journal = "Journal of the American Statistical Association",
issn = "0162-1459",
publisher = "Taylor and Francis Ltd.",
number = "536",
}