Corridors of clarity: Four principles to overcome uncertainty paralysis in the anthropocene

Stephen Polasky; Anne Sophie Crépin; Reinette Oonsie Biggs; Stephen R. Carpenter; Carl Folke; Garry Peterson; Marten Scheffer; Scott Barrett; Gretchen Daily; Paul Ehrlich; Richard B. Howarth; Terry Hughes; Simon A. Levin; Jason F. Shogren; Max Troell; Brian Walker; Anastasios Xepapadeas

doi:10.1093/biosci/biaa115

Corridors of clarity: Four principles to overcome uncertainty paralysis in the anthropocene

Stephen Polasky, Anne Sophie Crépin, Reinette Oonsie Biggs, Stephen R. Carpenter, Carl Folke, Garry Peterson, Marten Scheffer, Scott Barrett, Gretchen Daily, Paul Ehrlich, Richard B. Howarth, Terry Hughes, Simon A. Levin, Jason F. Shogren, Max Troell, Brian Walker, Anastasios Xepapadeas

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

20 Scopus citations

Abstract

Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridors of clarity could help understanding critical phenomena or causal pathways sufficiently well to justify taking policy action. To this end, we suggest four principles: Follow the strongest and most direct path between policy decisions on outcomes, focus on finding sufficient evidence for policy purpose, prioritize no-regrets policies by avoiding options with controversial, uncertain, or immeasurable benefits, aim for getting the big picture roughly right rather than focusing on details.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	1139-1144
Number of pages	6
Journal	BioScience
Volume	70
Issue number	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaa115
State	Published - Dec 1 2020

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Keywords

Global environmental change
Science-policy interface
Sufficient evidence
Uncertainty

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10.1093/biosci/biaa115

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Polasky, S., Crépin, A. S., Biggs, R. O., Carpenter, S. R., Folke, C., Peterson, G., Scheffer, M., Barrett, S., Daily, G., Ehrlich, P., Howarth, R. B., Hughes, T., Levin, S. A., Shogren, J. F., Troell, M., Walker, B., & Xepapadeas, A. (2020). Corridors of clarity: Four principles to overcome uncertainty paralysis in the anthropocene. BioScience, 70(12), 1139-1144. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaa115

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abstract = "Global environmental change challenges humanity because of its broad scale, long-lasting, and potentially irreversible consequences. Key to an effective response is to use an appropriate scientific lens to peer through the mist of uncertainty that threatens timely and appropriate decisions surrounding these complex issues. Identifying such corridors of clarity could help understanding critical phenomena or causal pathways sufficiently well to justify taking policy action. To this end, we suggest four principles: Follow the strongest and most direct path between policy decisions on outcomes, focus on finding sufficient evidence for policy purpose, prioritize no-regrets policies by avoiding options with controversial, uncertain, or immeasurable benefits, aim for getting the big picture roughly right rather than focusing on details.",

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Polasky, S, Crépin, AS, Biggs, RO, Carpenter, SR, Folke, C, Peterson, G, Scheffer, M, Barrett, S, Daily, G, Ehrlich, P, Howarth, RB, Hughes, T, Levin, SA, Shogren, JF, Troell, M, Walker, B & Xepapadeas, A 2020, 'Corridors of clarity: Four principles to overcome uncertainty paralysis in the anthropocene', BioScience, vol. 70, no. 12, pp. 1139-1144. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaa115

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AU - Polasky, Stephen

AU - Crépin, Anne Sophie

AU - Biggs, Reinette Oonsie

AU - Carpenter, Stephen R.

AU - Folke, Carl

AU - Peterson, Garry

AU - Scheffer, Marten

AU - Barrett, Scott

AU - Daily, Gretchen

AU - Ehrlich, Paul

AU - Howarth, Richard B.

AU - Hughes, Terry

AU - Levin, Simon A.

AU - Shogren, Jason F.

AU - Troell, Max

AU - Walker, Brian

AU - Xepapadeas, Anastasios

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Corridors of clarity: Four principles to overcome uncertainty paralysis in the anthropocene

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