Compound impacts from droughts and structural vulnerability on human mobility

Lisa Thalheimer, Nicolas Choquette-Levy, Filiz Garip

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Extreme dry events already disrupt populations’ ability to migrate. In a warming climate, compound drought events could amplify vulnerability and drive forced migration. Here, we contribute the first multi-method research design on societal impacts from compound drought events. We show how mobility patterns are shaped by the intersection of drought and social vulnerability factors in three drought-prone countries – Madagascar, Nepal, and Mexico. We find that internal migration in agricultural communities in Mexico increased by 14 to 24 basis points from 1991 to 2018 and will prospectively increase by 2 to 15 basis points in Nepal in case of a compound drought event in 2025. We show that consecutive drought events exacerbate structural vulnerabilities, limiting migrants’ adaptation options, including long-range migration. We conclude that the additional social pre-conditions, e.g., social isolation and lack of accurate information, ultimately limit migration as an adaptation option for households vulnerable to compound drought events.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number105491
JournaliScience
Volume25
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 22 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General

Keywords

  • Climatology
  • Human Geography
  • Social sciences

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