Compound impacts from droughts and structural vulnerability on human mobility

Lisa Thalheimer, Nicolas Choquette-Levy, Filiz Garip

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Scopus citations


Extreme dry events already disrupt populations’ ability to migrate. In a warming climate, compound drought events could amplify vulnerability and drive forced migration. Here, we contribute the first multi-method research design on societal impacts from compound drought events. We show how mobility patterns are shaped by the intersection of drought and social vulnerability factors in three drought-prone countries – Madagascar, Nepal, and Mexico. We find that internal migration in agricultural communities in Mexico increased by 14 to 24 basis points from 1991 to 2018 and will prospectively increase by 2 to 15 basis points in Nepal in case of a compound drought event in 2025. We show that consecutive drought events exacerbate structural vulnerabilities, limiting migrants’ adaptation options, including long-range migration. We conclude that the additional social pre-conditions, e.g., social isolation and lack of accurate information, ultimately limit migration as an adaptation option for households vulnerable to compound drought events.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number105491
Issue number12
StatePublished - Dec 22 2022

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • General


  • Climatology
  • Human Geography
  • Social sciences


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