Comment on "Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N"

Gabriel Andres Vecchi; Rym Msadek; Thomas L. Delworth; Keith W. Dixon; Eric Guilyardi; Ed Hawkins; Alicia R. Karspeck; Juliette Mignot; Jon Robson; Anthony Rosati; Rong Zhang

doi:10.1126/science.1222566

Comment on "Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N"

Gabriel Andres Vecchi, Rym Msadek, Thomas L. Delworth, Keith W. Dixon, Eric Guilyardi, Ed Hawkins, Alicia R. Karspeck, Juliette Mignot, Jon Robson, Anthony Rosati, Rong Zhang

Research output: Contribution to journal › Comment/debate › peer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

Matei et al. (Reports, 6 January 2012, p. 76) claim to show skillful multiyear predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, these claims are not justified, primarily because the predictions of AMOC transport do not outperform simple reference forecasts based on climatological annual cycles. Accordingly, there is no justification for the "confident" prediction of a stable AMOC through 2014.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	604c
Journal	Science
Volume	338
Issue number	6107
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1222566
State	Published - Nov 2 2012

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title = "Comment on {"}Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N{"}",

abstract = "Matei et al. (Reports, 6 January 2012, p. 76) claim to show skillful multiyear predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, these claims are not justified, primarily because the predictions of AMOC transport do not outperform simple reference forecasts based on climatological annual cycles. Accordingly, there is no justification for the {"}confident{"} prediction of a stable AMOC through 2014.",

author = "Vecchi, {Gabriel Andres} and Rym Msadek and Delworth, {Thomas L.} and Dixon, {Keith W.} and Eric Guilyardi and Ed Hawkins and Karspeck, {Alicia R.} and Juliette Mignot and Jon Robson and Anthony Rosati and Rong Zhang",

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doi = "10.1126/science.1222566",

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T1 - Comment on "Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N"

AU - Vecchi, Gabriel Andres

AU - Msadek, Rym

AU - Delworth, Thomas L.

AU - Dixon, Keith W.

AU - Guilyardi, Eric

AU - Hawkins, Ed

AU - Karspeck, Alicia R.

AU - Mignot, Juliette

AU - Robson, Jon

AU - Rosati, Anthony

AU - Zhang, Rong

PY - 2012/11/2

Y1 - 2012/11/2

N2 - Matei et al. (Reports, 6 January 2012, p. 76) claim to show skillful multiyear predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, these claims are not justified, primarily because the predictions of AMOC transport do not outperform simple reference forecasts based on climatological annual cycles. Accordingly, there is no justification for the "confident" prediction of a stable AMOC through 2014.

AB - Matei et al. (Reports, 6 January 2012, p. 76) claim to show skillful multiyear predictions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, these claims are not justified, primarily because the predictions of AMOC transport do not outperform simple reference forecasts based on climatological annual cycles. Accordingly, there is no justification for the "confident" prediction of a stable AMOC through 2014.

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U2 - 10.1126/science.1222566

DO - 10.1126/science.1222566

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C2 - 23118168

AN - SCOPUS:84868248245

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 338

SP - 604c

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6107

ER -

Comment on "Multiyear prediction of monthly mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N"

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