Collective procrastination and protest cycles

This paper studies a model of “pivotal protesting,” in which citizens act in order to change the outcome rather than to collect private benefits. We show that, when citizens face repeated opportunities to protest against a regime, pivotal protesting entails complex dynamic considerations: The continuation value of the status quo influences the citizens' willingness to protest today. Thus, a mere change in expectations about the future may trigger a revolt. The same logic often induces a pattern of protest cycles, driven by a novel source of inefficiency: An expectation that a protest will take place tomorrow can excessively sap incentives to coordinate on protesting today. Thus, potential protests crowd each other out. This can lead to a form of collective procrastination: Access to more opportunities to protest can lower the citizens' welfare, as collective action becomes inefficiently delayed.