TY - JOUR
T1 - Coastal processes modify projections of some climate-driven stressors in the California Current System
AU - Siedlecki, Samantha A.
AU - Pilcher, Darren
AU - Howard, Evan M.
AU - Deutsch, Curtis
AU - MacCready, Parker
AU - Norton, Emily L.
AU - Frenzel, Hartmut
AU - Newton, Jan
AU - Feely, Richard A.
AU - Alin, Simone R.
AU - Klinger, Terrie
N1 - Funding Information:
Author contributions. SAS, DP, and CD formulated the research goals and designed the experiments and analyses. DP and HF carried out the experiments. TK, SAS, JN, and CD acquired the financial support for the project that led to its publication. TK managed and coordinated research meetings with the co-authors. DP and ELN performed formal analysis of the model fields. DP created the figures, which SAS helped design. SAS and PM developed the 1.5 km simulations alongside the Coastal Modeling Group at UW. CD developed the 12 km simulations. RAF and SRA collected the data used for model evaluation and assisted in determining how model evaluation would be performed. SAS prepared the manuscript with contributions and edits from all co-authors.
Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
PY - 2021/5/11
Y1 - 2021/5/11
N2 - Global projections for ocean conditions in 2100 predict that the North Pacific will experience some of the largest changes. Coastal processes that drive variability in the region can alter these projected changes but are poorly resolved by global coarse-resolution models. We quantify the degree to which local processes modify biogeochemical changes in the eastern boundary California Current System (CCS) using multi-model regionally downscaled climate projections of multiple climate-associated stressors (temperature, O2, pH, saturation state (ω), and CO2). The downscaled projections predict changes consistent with the directional change from the global projections for the same emissions scenario. However, the magnitude and spatial variability of projected changes are modified in the downscaled projections for carbon variables. Future changes in CO2 and surface ω are amplified, while changes in pH and upper 200 m ω are dampened relative to the projected change in global models. Surface carbon variable changes are highly correlated to changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), CO2 changes over the upper 200 m are correlated to total alkalinity (TA), and changes at the bottom are correlated to DIC and nutrient changes. The correlations in these latter two regions suggest that future changes in carbon variables are influenced by nutrient cycling, changes in benthic-pelagic coupling, and TA resolved by the downscaled projections. Within the CCS, differences in global and downscaled climate stressors are spatially variable, and the northern CCS experiences the most intense modification. These projected changes are consistent with the continued reduction in source water oxygen; increase in source water nutrients; and, combined with solubility-driven changes, altered future upwelled source waters in the CCS. The results presented here suggest that projections that resolve coastal processes are necessary for adequate representation of the magnitude of projected change in carbon stressors in the CCS.
AB - Global projections for ocean conditions in 2100 predict that the North Pacific will experience some of the largest changes. Coastal processes that drive variability in the region can alter these projected changes but are poorly resolved by global coarse-resolution models. We quantify the degree to which local processes modify biogeochemical changes in the eastern boundary California Current System (CCS) using multi-model regionally downscaled climate projections of multiple climate-associated stressors (temperature, O2, pH, saturation state (ω), and CO2). The downscaled projections predict changes consistent with the directional change from the global projections for the same emissions scenario. However, the magnitude and spatial variability of projected changes are modified in the downscaled projections for carbon variables. Future changes in CO2 and surface ω are amplified, while changes in pH and upper 200 m ω are dampened relative to the projected change in global models. Surface carbon variable changes are highly correlated to changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), CO2 changes over the upper 200 m are correlated to total alkalinity (TA), and changes at the bottom are correlated to DIC and nutrient changes. The correlations in these latter two regions suggest that future changes in carbon variables are influenced by nutrient cycling, changes in benthic-pelagic coupling, and TA resolved by the downscaled projections. Within the CCS, differences in global and downscaled climate stressors are spatially variable, and the northern CCS experiences the most intense modification. These projected changes are consistent with the continued reduction in source water oxygen; increase in source water nutrients; and, combined with solubility-driven changes, altered future upwelled source waters in the CCS. The results presented here suggest that projections that resolve coastal processes are necessary for adequate representation of the magnitude of projected change in carbon stressors in the CCS.
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U2 - 10.5194/bg-18-2871-2021
DO - 10.5194/bg-18-2871-2021
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85105859078
SN - 1726-4170
VL - 18
SP - 2871
EP - 2890
JO - Biogeosciences
JF - Biogeosciences
IS - 9
ER -