TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate-driven risks to the climate mitigation potential of forests
AU - Anderegg, William R.L.
AU - Trugman, Anna T.
AU - Badgley, Grayson
AU - Anderson, Christa M.
AU - Bartuska, Ann
AU - Ciais, Philippe
AU - Cullenward, Danny
AU - Field, Christopher B.
AU - Freeman, Jeremy
AU - Goetz, Scott J.
AU - Hicke, Jeffrey A.
AU - Huntzinger, Deborah
AU - Jackson, Robert B.
AU - Nickerson, John
AU - Pacala, Stephen
AU - Randerson, James T.
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank the reviewers for insightful comments that improved the paper. Funding: W.R.L.A. acknowledges funding from the David and Lucille Packard Foundation; NSF grants 1714972 and 1802880; and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Programme, Ecosystem Services and Agro-ecosystem Management, grant no. 2018-67019-27850. A.T.T. acknowledges funding from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Programme grant no. 2018-67012-31496 and the University of California Laboratory Fees Research Program award no. LFR-20-652467. S.J.G. acknowledges support from NASA Earth Ventures grant NNL15AA03C and NASA Applied Sciences grant NNX17AG51G. J.A.H. acknowledges support by the NSF under grant no. DMS-1520873. J.T.R. acknowledges support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research RUBISCO science focus area and the University of California - National Laboratory laboratory fees program. D.C. is a member of California's Independent Emissions Market Advisory Committee but does not speak for the Committee here. P.C. acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy project SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P and the ANR CLAND Convergence Institute. R.B.J. acknowledges support from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation (GBMF5439). Author
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/6/19
Y1 - 2020/6/19
N2 - Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.
AB - Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions.
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U2 - 10.1126/science.aaz7005
DO - 10.1126/science.aaz7005
M3 - Review article
C2 - 32554569
AN - SCOPUS:85086693633
SN - 0036-8075
VL - 368
JO - Science
JF - Science
IS - 6497
M1 - eaaz7005
ER -