TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate change, nuclear power, and nuclear proliferation
T2 - Magnitude matters
AU - Goldston, Robert James
PY - 2011/5/1
Y1 - 2011/5/1
N2 - Integrated energy, environment, and economics modeling suggests that worldwide electrical energy use will increase to ~12 TWe in 2100. Due to limitations of other low-carbon energy sources, nuclear power may be required to provide ~30% of world electrical energy by 2100. Calculations of the associated stocks and flows of uranium, plutonium, and minor actinides indicate that the proliferation risks at mid-century, using current light-water reactor technology, are daunting. There are institutional arrangements that may be able to provide an acceptable level of risk mitigation, but they will be difficult to implement. If a transition is begun to fast-spectrum reactors at midcentury, the global nuclear proliferation risks become much greater by 2100, and more resistant to mitigation. Fusion energy, if successfully demonstrated to be economically competitive, would provide a source of nuclear power with much lower proliferation risks than fission.
AB - Integrated energy, environment, and economics modeling suggests that worldwide electrical energy use will increase to ~12 TWe in 2100. Due to limitations of other low-carbon energy sources, nuclear power may be required to provide ~30% of world electrical energy by 2100. Calculations of the associated stocks and flows of uranium, plutonium, and minor actinides indicate that the proliferation risks at mid-century, using current light-water reactor technology, are daunting. There are institutional arrangements that may be able to provide an acceptable level of risk mitigation, but they will be difficult to implement. If a transition is begun to fast-spectrum reactors at midcentury, the global nuclear proliferation risks become much greater by 2100, and more resistant to mitigation. Fusion energy, if successfully demonstrated to be economically competitive, would provide a source of nuclear power with much lower proliferation risks than fission.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79960882397&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79960882397&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/08929882.2011.589223
DO - 10.1080/08929882.2011.589223
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:79960882397
VL - 19
SP - 130
EP - 165
JO - Science and Global Security
JF - Science and Global Security
SN - 0892-9882
IS - 2
ER -