TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility
AU - Benveniste, Hélène
AU - Oppenheimer, Michael
AU - Fleurbaey, Marc
N1 - Funding Information:
We thank G. Abel, M. Gidden, S. KC and P. Sauer for data and D. Anthoff and F. Errickson for support with the FUND model. H.B. gratefully acknowledges support of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, the High Meadows Foundation and the French Environmental Fellowship Fund at the Harvard University Center for the Environment.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
PY - 2022/7
Y1 - 2022/7
N2 - Migration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty.
AB - Migration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty.
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U2 - 10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w
DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85133679123
SN - 1758-678X
VL - 12
SP - 634
EP - 641
JO - Nature Climate Change
JF - Nature Climate Change
IS - 7
ER -