TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate change and population
T2 - An assessment of mortality due to health impacts
AU - Pottier, Antonin
AU - Fleurbaey, Marc
AU - Méjean, Aurélie
AU - Zuber, Stéphane
N1 - Funding Information:
This research has been supported by the Agence nationale de la recherche (ANR), France project FairClimpop, Grant # ANR-16-CE03-0001-01.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2021/5
Y1 - 2021/5
N2 - We develop a model of population dynamics accounting for the impact of climate change on mortality through five channels (heat, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, dengue, undernutrition). An age-dependent mortality, which depends on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three climate scenarios (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6) and find that the five risks induce deaths in the range from 135,000 per annum (in the near term) to 280,000 per annum (at the end of the century) in the RCP 6.0 scenario. We examine the number of life-years lost due to the five selected risks and find figures ranging from 4 to 9 million annually. These numbers are too low to impact the aggregate dynamics but they have interesting evolution patterns. The number of life-years lost is constant (RCP 6.0) or decreases over time (RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6). For the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios, we find that the number of life-years lost is higher today than in 2100, due to improvements in generic mortality conditions, the bias of those improvements towards the young, and an ageing population. From that perspective, the present generation is found to bear the brunt of the considered climate change impacts.
AB - We develop a model of population dynamics accounting for the impact of climate change on mortality through five channels (heat, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, dengue, undernutrition). An age-dependent mortality, which depends on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three climate scenarios (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6) and find that the five risks induce deaths in the range from 135,000 per annum (in the near term) to 280,000 per annum (at the end of the century) in the RCP 6.0 scenario. We examine the number of life-years lost due to the five selected risks and find figures ranging from 4 to 9 million annually. These numbers are too low to impact the aggregate dynamics but they have interesting evolution patterns. The number of life-years lost is constant (RCP 6.0) or decreases over time (RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6). For the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios, we find that the number of life-years lost is higher today than in 2100, due to improvements in generic mortality conditions, the bias of those improvements towards the young, and an ageing population. From that perspective, the present generation is found to bear the brunt of the considered climate change impacts.
KW - Climate change
KW - Endogenous population
KW - Impacts
KW - Integrated assessment model
KW - Mortality risk
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U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106967
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106967
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85100976057
SN - 0921-8009
VL - 183
JO - Ecological Economics
JF - Ecological Economics
M1 - 106967
ER -