Cholera seasonality in Madras (1901-1940): Dual role for rainfall in endemic and epidemic regions

Diego Ruiz-Moreno; Mercedes Pascual; Menno Bouma; Andrew Dobson; Benjamin Cash

doi:10.1007/s10393-006-0079-8

Cholera seasonality in Madras (1901-1940): Dual role for rainfall in endemic and epidemic regions

Diego Ruiz-Moreno, Mercedes Pascual, Menno Bouma, Andrew Dobson, Benjamin Cash

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

57 Scopus citations

Abstract

The seasonality of cholera and its spatial variability remain unexplained. Uncovering the role of environmental drivers in these seasonal patterns is critical to understand temporal variability at longer time scales, including trends and interannual variability. Rainfall has been proposed as a key driver of the seasonality of cholera. To address this hypothesis, we examine the association between rainfall and cholera in both time and space using the extensive historical records for the districts of Madras in former British India (1901-1940). We show the existence of two main spatial clusters that differ not just in the effect of rainfall but also in the seasonal pattern and frequency of periods with and without cholera mortality. The results support a model of cholera seasonality with two different routes of transmission: one is enhanced by increasing rainfall (in areas with abundant water), the other is buffered by increasing water. We discuss how the dual nature of the influence of rainfall creates different temporal patterns in regions where cholera is either "endemic" or "epidemic".

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	52-62
Number of pages	11
Journal	EcoHealth
Volume	4
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-006-0079-8
State	Published - Mar 2007

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Ecology
Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

Keywords

Cholera
Endemic cholera
Epidemic cholera
Rainfall

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10.1007/s10393-006-0079-8

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title = "Cholera seasonality in Madras (1901-1940): Dual role for rainfall in endemic and epidemic regions",

abstract = "The seasonality of cholera and its spatial variability remain unexplained. Uncovering the role of environmental drivers in these seasonal patterns is critical to understand temporal variability at longer time scales, including trends and interannual variability. Rainfall has been proposed as a key driver of the seasonality of cholera. To address this hypothesis, we examine the association between rainfall and cholera in both time and space using the extensive historical records for the districts of Madras in former British India (1901-1940). We show the existence of two main spatial clusters that differ not just in the effect of rainfall but also in the seasonal pattern and frequency of periods with and without cholera mortality. The results support a model of cholera seasonality with two different routes of transmission: one is enhanced by increasing rainfall (in areas with abundant water), the other is buffered by increasing water. We discuss how the dual nature of the influence of rainfall creates different temporal patterns in regions where cholera is either {"}endemic{"} or {"}epidemic{"}.",

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author = "Diego Ruiz-Moreno and Mercedes Pascual and Menno Bouma and Andrew Dobson and Benjamin Cash",

note = "Funding Information: We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation–National Institutes of Health (Ecology of Infectious Diseases Grant EF 0430 120) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Oceans and Health Grant NA 040 AR 460019).",

year = "2007",

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doi = "10.1007/s10393-006-0079-8",

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AU - Pascual, Mercedes

AU - Bouma, Menno

AU - Dobson, Andrew

AU - Cash, Benjamin

N1 - Funding Information: We thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation–National Institutes of Health (Ecology of Infectious Diseases Grant EF 0430 120) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Oceans and Health Grant NA 040 AR 460019).

PY - 2007/3

Y1 - 2007/3

N2 - The seasonality of cholera and its spatial variability remain unexplained. Uncovering the role of environmental drivers in these seasonal patterns is critical to understand temporal variability at longer time scales, including trends and interannual variability. Rainfall has been proposed as a key driver of the seasonality of cholera. To address this hypothesis, we examine the association between rainfall and cholera in both time and space using the extensive historical records for the districts of Madras in former British India (1901-1940). We show the existence of two main spatial clusters that differ not just in the effect of rainfall but also in the seasonal pattern and frequency of periods with and without cholera mortality. The results support a model of cholera seasonality with two different routes of transmission: one is enhanced by increasing rainfall (in areas with abundant water), the other is buffered by increasing water. We discuss how the dual nature of the influence of rainfall creates different temporal patterns in regions where cholera is either "endemic" or "epidemic".

AB - The seasonality of cholera and its spatial variability remain unexplained. Uncovering the role of environmental drivers in these seasonal patterns is critical to understand temporal variability at longer time scales, including trends and interannual variability. Rainfall has been proposed as a key driver of the seasonality of cholera. To address this hypothesis, we examine the association between rainfall and cholera in both time and space using the extensive historical records for the districts of Madras in former British India (1901-1940). We show the existence of two main spatial clusters that differ not just in the effect of rainfall but also in the seasonal pattern and frequency of periods with and without cholera mortality. The results support a model of cholera seasonality with two different routes of transmission: one is enhanced by increasing rainfall (in areas with abundant water), the other is buffered by increasing water. We discuss how the dual nature of the influence of rainfall creates different temporal patterns in regions where cholera is either "endemic" or "epidemic".

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KW - Rainfall

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Cholera seasonality in Madras (1901-1940): Dual role for rainfall in endemic and epidemic regions

Abstract

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

Keywords

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