TY - JOUR
T1 - Chapter 1 Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series
AU - Stock, James H.
AU - Watson, Mark W.
N1 - Funding Information:
The authors have benefited from comments from and/or discussions with Michael Bordo, Christopher Carroll, Karen Dynan, Benjamin Friedman, Robert King, Jeffrey Miron, Adrian Pagan, Christopher Sims, and John Taylor. This research was supported in part by National Science Foundation Grants Nos. SBR-9409629 and SBR-9730489.
PY - 1999
Y1 - 1999
N2 - This chapter examines the empirical relationship in the postwar United States between the aggregate business cycle and various aspects of the macroeconomy, such as production, interest rates, prices, productivity, sectoral employment, investment, income, and consumption. This is done by examining the strength of the relationship between the aggregate cycle and the cyclical components of individual time series, whether individual series lead or lag the cycle, and whether individual series are useful in predicting aggregate fluctuations. The chapter also reviews some additional empirical regularities in the US economy, including the Phillips curve and some long-run relationships, in particular long run money demand, long run properties of interest rates and the yield curve, and the long run properties of the shares in output of consumption, investment and government spending.
AB - This chapter examines the empirical relationship in the postwar United States between the aggregate business cycle and various aspects of the macroeconomy, such as production, interest rates, prices, productivity, sectoral employment, investment, income, and consumption. This is done by examining the strength of the relationship between the aggregate cycle and the cyclical components of individual time series, whether individual series lead or lag the cycle, and whether individual series are useful in predicting aggregate fluctuations. The chapter also reviews some additional empirical regularities in the US economy, including the Phillips curve and some long-run relationships, in particular long run money demand, long run properties of interest rates and the yield curve, and the long run properties of the shares in output of consumption, investment and government spending.
KW - Phillips curve
KW - economic fluctuations
KW - long run macroeconomic relations
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U2 - 10.1016/S1574-0048(99)01004-6
DO - 10.1016/S1574-0048(99)01004-6
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:77956750491
SN - 1574-0048
VL - 1
SP - 3
EP - 64
JO - Handbook of Macroeconomics
JF - Handbook of Macroeconomics
IS - PART A
ER -