Can Crime Be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence From a Randomized Experiment in New York

Can crime be deterred at low cost? We report the results of a randomized experiment of a messaging intervention designed to deter offending among individuals under parole supervision with a prior violent felony conviction or firearm arrest. The intervention consisted of a group meeting in which high-risk paroled individuals were notified of the sanction they would face upon reoffending while being offered community resources to support re-integration into the community. The program did not lead to a notable reduction in future arrests or create community spillover effects but did reduce parole violations by 15%. Potential mechanisms and implications for similar programs are discussed.