Beyond self-reports: Changes in biomarkers as predictors of mortality

Dana A. Glei, Noreen Goldman, Germán Rodríguez, Maxine Weinstein

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

29 Scopus citations

Abstract

The proliferation of biosocial surveys has increased the importance of weighing the costs and benefits of adding biomarker collection to population-based surveys. A crucial question is whether biomarkers offer incremental value beyond self-reported measures, which are easier to collect and impose less respondent burden. We use longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of older Taiwanese (aged 54+ in 2000, examined in 2000 and 2006 with mortality follow-up through 2011) to address that question with respect to predicting all-cause mortality. A summary measure of biomarkers improves mortality prediction (as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) compared with self-reports alone, but individual biomarkers perform better than the summary score. We find that incorporating change in biomarkers over a six-year period yields a small improvement in mortality prediction compared with one-time measurement. But, is the incremental value worth the costs?.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)331-360
Number of pages30
JournalPopulation and Development Review
Volume40
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2014

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Demography
  • Development
  • Sociology and Political Science

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