@article{00cecaa873474ff98c41da52948865b4,
title = "Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience",
abstract = "Solar generation can become a major and global source of clean energy by 2050. Nevertheless, few studies have assessed its resilience to extreme events, and none have used empirical data to characterize the fragility of solar panels. This paper develops fragility functions for rooftop and ground-mounted solar panels calibrated with solar panel structural performance data in the Caribbean for Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 and Hurricane Dorian in 2019. After estimating the hurricane wind fields, we follow a Bayesian approach to estimate fragility functions for rooftop and ground-mounted panels based on the observations supplemented with existing numerical studies on solar panel vulnerability. Next, we apply the developed fragility functions to assess failure rates due to hurricane hazards in Miami-Dade, Florida, highlighting that the panels perform below the code requirements, especially rooftop panels. We also illustrate that strength increases can improve the panels' structural performance effectively. However, strength increases by a factor of two still cannot meet the reliability stated in the code.",
keywords = "Bayesian update, Fragility functions, Hurricane hazards, Solar panels, Structural reliability",
author = "Luis Ceferino and Ning Lin and Dazhi Xi",
note = "Funding Information: We thank Sanya Detweiler from the Clinton Foundation, Chris Needham and Solar Frank Oudheusden from FCX Solar, and Christopher Burgess from the Rocky Mountain Institute for sharing their reports, photos, and relevant documentation on solar panels{\textquoteright} structural performance after Hurricanes Maria and Irma in 2017 and Dorian in 2019. We also acknowledge the financial support by the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment at Princeton University through the Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellowship. Additionally, this research was also supported by the NSF Grant 1652448. The authors are grateful for their generous support. Funding Information: We thank Sanya Detweiler from the Clinton Foundation, Chris Needham and Solar Frank Oudheusden from FCX Solar, and Christopher Burgess from the Rocky Mountain Institute for sharing their reports, photos, and relevant documentation on solar panels{\textquoteright} structural performance after Hurricanes Maria and Irma in 2017 and Dorian in 2019. We also acknowledge the financial support by the Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment at Princeton University through the Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellowship. Additionally, this research was also supported by the NSF Grant 1652448 . The authors are grateful for their generous support. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022",
year = "2023",
month = jan,
doi = "10.1016/j.ress.2022.108896",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "229",
journal = "Reliability Engineering and System Safety",
issn = "0951-8320",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
}